Sigmoid Social

Florian U. JehnTime for updates on my blog again. However, not only the articles, but also the infrastructure. Thanks to <a href="https://wisskomm.social/@rogue_scholar" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@rogue_scholar</a> now every post has a DOI and can be cited. Also, to make things look nicer, every post now has its on fitting picture at the start. When it comes to the contents I have updated, I wanted to highlight the article by Nord et al. (2025). In those times it is nice to sometimes come across articles that have something more positive to say. Nord et al. looked at how good democracies are at becoming more democratic again after they had some autocratic backsliding. At least according to their results, it seems like over time democracies have become better at this kind of course correction. In the last 30 years 73 % of all turns towards autocracy were quickly reversed. In addition, in contrast to earlier last century, these reverses now mostly happen before the country in questions becomes a full fledged autocratic regime. If you want to learn more about this and the other articles I have added, you can find the new update post here: <a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/july-2025-updates" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/july-2025-updates</a><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/democracy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#democracy</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/RogueScholar" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#RogueScholar</a>

Florian U. JehnI write a <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a>. This means I regularly go back and update olds posts with new <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/research" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#research</a> I have found. If you are curious how something like this looks like, I just published my next <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/update" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#update</a> post, which shows my most recent new insights: <a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/december-2024-updates" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/december-2024-updates</a>

Florian U. JehnThis month's post is about the hypothetical. Counterfactuals help us understand the world we live in by highlighting what could have gone differently and why. They also allow us to explore potential futures. For example, by examining a past catastrophe, we can ask: "What would have made this worse?" This allows us to better prepare for future challenges. 🌍🔍📖 <a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/counterfactual-catastrophes" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/counterfactual-catastrophes</a><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/counterfactual" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#counterfactual</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/future" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#future</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/foresight" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#foresight</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#forecasting</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/storylines" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#storylines</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ClimatCchange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimatCchange</a>

Florian U. JehnWhat would happen to our society if a long-term <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/blackout" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#blackout</a> occurred? There is a high chance that it would get quite bad very quickly. <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/Transportation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Transportation</a> and health services would likely cease to function within a few days, and many people would face food and <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/water" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#water</a> insecurity almost immediately. If you're interested in more details, I have written a new post in my <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a> about the consequences of <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/blackouts" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#blackouts</a>: <a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/the-consequences-of-blackouts" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/the-consequences-of-blackouts</a> ⚡🚨📉 <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/health" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#health</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/foodsecurity" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#foodsecurity</a>

Florian U. JehnIn my work on <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/SocietalCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#SocietalCollapse</a>, the <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/FoodSystem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#FoodSystem</a> 🌾 frequently emerges as a key factor. A critical aspect is the size of food stocks, which helps to endure periods of scarcity. But how much <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/food" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#food</a> is actually stored worldwide? Check out my latest post to find out more. 🌍 <a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/how-much-food-is-there" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/how-much-food-is-there</a><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#resilience</a>, <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/scarcity" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#scarcity</a>

Florian U. JehnThroughout <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/history" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#history</a>, <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/humans" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#humans</a> have often engaged in self-destructive behavior, creating incentive systems that harm society as a whole. These processes have recently been named "<a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/AnthropoceneTraps" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AnthropoceneTraps</a>." In my latest post, I explore this concept further: What traps have we fallen into? How deeply are we ensnared? What can we do to break free? 🌍🪤<a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/anthropocene-traps" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/anthropocene-traps</a><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/SocietalCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#SocietalCollapse</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Collapse</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a>

Florian U. JehnOur global <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/economy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#economy</a> and especially the <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/food" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#food</a> sector is very dependent on <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/trade" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#trade</a>. However, we lack understanding what might happen with our trade, if the system faces major disruptions. In the newest post of my <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a> on <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/SocietalCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#SocietalCollapse</a> I explain the status quo of the food trade system, why it is so vulnerable and what we need to understand in the future: <a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/trade-collapse" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/trade-collapse</a>

Florian U. JehnWhat factors allow a <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/society" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#society</a> to successfully navigate a <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/crisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#crisis</a>? In a new post in my <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a> on <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#collapse</a> I do a deep dive into a recent quantitative <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/history" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#history</a> preprint, which collected data from the <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/BronzeAge" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#BronzeAge</a> till the beginning of the <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/20thCentury" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#20thCentury</a> to answer this question.<a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/what-factors-allow-societies-to-survive" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/what-factors-allow-societies-to-survive</a>

Florian U. JehnWhat is the best place to weather the aftermaths of <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/GlobalCatastrophes" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#GlobalCatastrophes</a>? I explore this in a new post in my <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a>. So, if you want to find out what makes a location resilient against such events, check it out: <a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/the-best-places-to-weather-global" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/the-best-places-to-weather-global</a><a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/Australia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Australia</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/NewZealand" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#NewZealand</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/SouthEastAsia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#SouthEastAsia</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#resilience</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/GlobalCatastrophicRisk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#GlobalCatastrophicRisk</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/Oceania" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Oceania</a>

Florian U. JehnIs <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ClimateChange</a> the ultimate cause for <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/SocietalCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#SocietalCollapse</a>? I explore this question in the new post of my <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/ExistentialCrunch" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ExistentialCrunch</a>: <a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/climate-anomalies-and-societal-collapse" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/climate-anomalies-and-societal-collapse</a>

Florian U. JehnWant to know more about societal collapse? Follow me! I recently got some funding from Open Phil to write a <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/LivingLiteratureReview" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LivingLiteratureReview</a> about <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/SocietalCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#SocietalCollapse</a>. I am happy to present the first post of this series. It is meant to give a general overview about <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#collapse</a> research: What are the main schools of collapse research? What even is a collapse? And what causes it? <a href="https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/mapping-out-collapse-research" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/mapping-out-collapse-research</a>

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