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#elnino

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O=C=O

State of the Global Climate 2024

Key messages:

Key #ClimateChange indicators again reach record levels

Long-term #warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C

#SeaLevelRise and #OceanWarming #irreversible for hundreds of years

Record #GreenhouseGas concentrations combined with #ElNiño and other factors to drive 2024 record heat

Early warnings and #climate services are vital to protect communities and economies

The clear signs of human-induced climate change reached new heights in 2024, which was likely the first calendar year to be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, with a global mean near-surface temperature of 1.55 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 average.

wmo.int/publication-series/sta

World Meteorological Organization
World Meteorological Organization · State of the Global Climate 2024
Public
Archaeology News :verified:

Remains of dismembered pregnant woman in Ecuador may have been sacrificed to thwart El Niño

In Ecuador, archaeologists have unearthed the remains of a young pregnant woman in a burial that seems to suggest she was sacrificed over one millennium ago. At Buen Suceso on the Ecuadorian coast, the burial site dates back to the Manteño period (CE 650-1532)...

More information: archaeologymag.com/2025/02/rem

Follow @archaeology

Remains of dismembered pregnant woman in Ecuador may have been sacrificed to thwart El Niño In Ecuador, archaeologists have unearthed the remains of a young pregnant woman in a burial that seems to suggest she was sacrificed over one millennium ago. At Buen Suceso on the Ecuadorian coast, the burial site dates back to the Manteño period (CE 650-1532) and contains unique artifacts and signs of violent death, leading experts to reevaluate ritual practices of the time...
#archaeology#archeology#anthropology
Public
O=C=O

Kühleffekt von La Niña kann globale Erhitzung auch phasenweise kaum kompensieren

Trotz des Klimaphänomens kam es jüngst zu Rekordtemperaturen. Das kann auf eine Trendwende hindeuten, die sich 2024 ankündigte: 1,5 Grad über vorindustriellem Niveau werden zur neuen Normalität

Das Jahr 2025 begann mit einem neuen #Klimaextrem: Die Statistiken zum Vorjahr meldeten, dass es im globalen Durchschnitt um (mehr als) 1,5 Grad Celsius wärmer war als vor der Industrialisierung – das erste Mal in der Geschichte. Fachleute gehen davon aus, dass es in den vergangenen 100.000 Jahren nicht so warm war, ein eindeutiger Zusammenhang mit den von Industriegesellschaften ausgestoßenen #Treibhausgase'n lässt sich nicht abstreiten. Dass die Schwelle gerade jetzt überschritten wurde, bringen Klimaforschende auch mit dem aufheizenden Phänomen #ElNiño in Zusammenhang, das bis April 2024 anhielt. Doch sie befürchten, dass die kühlende Gegenspielerin #LaNiña die #GlobaleErhitzung immer weniger in Schach halten und abschwächen kann.

derstandard.at/story/300000025

DER STANDARD · Kühleffekt von La Niña kann globale Erhitzung auch phasenweise kaum kompensierenTrotz des Klimaphänomens kam es jüngst zu Rekordtemperaturen. Das kann auf eine Trendwende hindeuten, die sich 2024 ankündigte: 1,5 Grad über vorindustriellem Niveau werden zur neuen Normalität
#Klimakatastrophe
Public
O=C=O

January sets an unexpected temperature record

Both 2023 and 2024 were exceptionally warm years, at just below and above 1.5C relative to preindustrial in the #WMO composite of surface temperature records, respectively. While we are still working to assess the full set of drivers of this warmth, it is clear that a sizable portion of 2024’s elevated temperatures were driven by a moderately strong El Niño event that peaked in November 2023.
January 2025 beat the prior record set in January 2024 by a sizable margin. And unlike the prior record Januaries (2007, 2016, 2020, and 2024) there is currently no #ElNiño event boosting global temperatures; rather, the world is in modest #LaNiña conditions that should, all things being equal, result in lower global temperatures.

So what does this mean? Thankfully #weather models expect global temperatures are set to drop next week as the Northern Hemisphere sharply cools, making it less likely that February will also set a new record. But an unexpected record to start things off may presage higher temperatures this year than many of us thought.

theclimatebrink.com/p/january-

#ClimateScience
#GlobalHeating
#ClimateCatastrophe

Graphic ERA5 January Temperatures with 2025 Prediction January 2025 stands out as anomalous even by the standards of the last two years.
Graphic Comparing Different 2025 Temperature Predictions Temperature projections for 2025 from the UK Met Office, NASA’s Dr Gavin Schmidt, Berkeley Earth and Carbon Brief, relative to pre-industrial (1850-1900) temperatures and compared to the historical average of six different datasets produced by the WMO. From Carbon Brief'‘s 2024 State of the Climate.
Public
Headlines Africa

Africa: Improving Resilience to Weather Shocks and Climate Resilience to Boost Economic Growth in Zimbabwe: [World Bank] Harare -- Zimbabwe's economic outlook is positive, with recovery from the 2019/20 COVID-19 recession and the 2024 El Niño-related drought, according to the fifth Zimbabwe Economic Update (ZEU) launched today. The report highlights the opportunity to strengthen resilience to climate… newsfeed.facilit8.network/THl6 #ClimateResilience #EconomicGrowth #Zimbabwe #WeatherShocks #ElNino

Public
O=C=O

Ocean-surface warming has more than quadrupled since the late-1980s, study shows

The rate of #ocean #warming has more than quadrupled over the past four decades, a new study has shown. Ocean temperatures were rising at about 0.06°C per decade in the late 1980s, but are now increasing at 0.27°C per decade.
Published 28 January 2025 in Environmental Research Letters, the study helps explain why 2023 and early 2024 saw unprecedented ocean temperatures.
This #accelerating ocean warming is driven by the Earth's growing energy imbalance—whereby more #energy from the sun is being absorbed in the Earth's system than is escaping back to space. This imbalance has roughly doubled since 2010, in part due to increasing #GreenhouseGas concentrations, and because the #Earth is now reflecting less sunlight to space than before.
Global ocean temperatures hit record highs for 450 days straight in 2023 and early 2024. Some of this warmth came from #ElNiño, a natural warming event in the Pacific.

phys.org/news/2025-01-ocean-su

Article: dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/a

#ClimateCrisis
#ClimateScience
#GlobalWarming
#GlobalWarning

Figure 2. (a) Deseasonalised monthly mean sea surface temperature between 60°N and 60°S (GMSST). Blue line: observed timeseries from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI). Orange line: fit to observed timeseries using Earth Energy Accumulation (EEA), El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, volcanic stratospheric aerosol and top-of-atmosphere total solar irradiance as predictors. (b) The components of the fit, i.e. the scaled predictors that (with an offset parameter not shown) sum to give the fitted curve in panel (a).
Public
Tino Eberl

2024 war das bisher wärmste Jahr weltweit: Zum ersten Mal lag die durchschnittliche globale #Temperatur über 1,5°C über dem vorindustriellen Niveau.

climate.copernicus.eu/copernic

Menschgemachter #Klimawandel bleibt der Haupttreiber extremer Temperaturen an Land und im Meer. Auch das #Wetterphänomen #ElNiño trug dazu bei. Daten von Organisationen wie #ECMWF, #NASA und #WMO unterstreichen die außergewöhnlichen Bedingungen des vergangenen Jahres. 🌍

climate.copernicus.euCopernicus: 2024 is the first year to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial level | Copernicus2024 is confirmed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to be the warmest year on record globally, and the first calendar year that the average global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above its pre-industrial level.
#Erderwärmung#Klimaziele
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Benjamin Carr, Ph.D. 👨🏻‍💻🧬

#GlobalWarming has accelerated due to #Earth absorbing more #sunlight
#2023 was always going to be hot, given that warmer #ElNiño conditions were superimposed on long-term trend of #climatechange driven by our #greenhousegas #emissions, even after the El Niño faded. They present data that suggests the Earth is absorbing more incoming sunlight than it has in the past, largely due to reduced cloud cover.
If it's a trend, future warming will be at the high end of estimates.
arstechnica.com/science/2024/1

Ars Technica · Study: Warming has accelerated due to the Earth absorbing more sunlightBy John Timmer
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Denise Gutzmer

El Niño exacerbates effects of #drought on Amazon groundwater and increases fire risk, study finds

The risk of fires in the #Amazon is greater in regions where groundwater storage is compromised, especially when #ElNiño exacerbates the drought. Using satellite images and data from fires, researchers have been able to demonstrate the relationship between the climatic phenomenon and the propensity for fires, creating a tool that could help with future prevention efforts.

phys.org/news/2024-12-el-nio-e

Phys.org · El Niño exacerbates effects of drought on Amazon groundwater and increases fire risk, study findsBy Luciana Constantino
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O=C=O

2024: Erderwärmung plus 1,62 Grad

Das Grazer #WegenerCenter hat die #Erderwärmung 2024 mit 1,62°C berechnet – Schwankungsbreite: plus/minus 0,05°.
„Die globale Erwärmung von 1,6° ist ein drastisches Warnsignal“, so Kirchengast. „Auch wenn heuer das Klimaphänomen #ElNino einen Anteil am Temperaturanstieg hatte, ist der Großteil von rund 1,4° langfristig und eindeutig von uns Menschen verursacht“

steiermark.orf.at/stories/3284

ORF.at · Wissenschaft: 2024: Erderwärmung plus 1,62 GradBy ORF.at
#Klimakrise
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CelloMom On Cars

"The research findings indicate that stronger winds across the equatorial Pacific have caused a notable acceleration of westward near-surface currents by approximately 20 percent in the central equatorial Pacific.

These changes may influence regional and global climate patterns, potentially affecting the frequency and intensity of #ElNiño and #LaNiña events."

scitechdaily.com/pacific-ocean
#ENSO

Public
O=C=O

Rapid surge in #GlobalWarming mainly due to reduced planetary #albedo, researchers suggest

"In addition to the influence of #ElNiño and the expected warming from anthropogenic #GreenhouseGas'es, several other factors have already been discussed that could have contributed to the surprisingly high global mean temperatures since 2023 ..."
But if all these factors are combined, there is still 0.2°C of warming with no readily apparent cause.

phys.org/news/2024-12-rapid-su

Considering the globe as a whole, high clouds and cloud-free scenes result in warming of the Earth's atmosphere, as less energy escapes into space than arrives from the sun. For low clouds, it's the opposite, so their decline leads to warming. Credit: Alfred-Wegener-Institut / Yves Nowak _____________ 2023 set a number of alarming new records. The global mean temperature also rose to nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level, another record. Seeking to identify the causes of this sudden rise has proven a challenge for researchers. After all, factoring in the effects of anthropogenic influences like the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, of the weather phenomenon El Niño, and of natural events like volcanic eruptions, can account for a major portion of the warming. But doing so still leaves a gap of roughly 0.2 degrees Celsius, which has never been satisfactorily explained.
#ClimateScience
Public
anlomedad

While the Southeast of #Spain flooded again,
leaders of Southern Africa met to discuss disaster risk reduction from #ENSO events.
undrr.org/news/leaders-unite-a

Good to see nation states working together. This past #ElNino has affected 60 million people directly in SouthWest #Africa with the effects of the drought and 5 millions with floods in the East. The incoming #LaNina turns the table: West Southern Africa will flood and the East run dry.
"Nearly 30 million people in Southern Africa face crisis levels of food insecurity."
"Since 2000, climate-related disasters have caused an estimated $540 billion in #LossAndDamage in the region, and such events are becoming more intense and frequent because of #ClimateChange

Sadly, no one spoke of getting to CO2zero asap. But getting independent from fossil fuel imports and related geo-political power games, and getting clean cooking fuel to everyone, and getting rid of toxic air pollution in cities are huge benefits.

www.undrr.org · Leaders unite to address the impacts of El Niño in Eastern and Southern AfricaRegional cooperation and early action are key to addressing the challenges posed by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climate-related shocks on the African continent.
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O=C=O

#WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 20

Key messages:
>#CO2 concentrations have increased 11.4 % in just 20 years

>Long lifetime of CO2 in #atmosphere locks in future temperature increase

>#ElNiño and vegetation fires fuel surge in later part of 2023

>Effectiveness of #carbon sinks like #forests cannot be taken for granted

>Improved understanding of carbon-#climate feedbacks is needed

wmo.int/publication-series/wmo

#ClimateScience
#ClimateCrisis
#GreenhouseGas
#Meteorology

The Baring Head station, which overlooks Cook Strait, has been operating since 1972 and the data collected there makes significant contributions to our global understanding of greenhouse gases. Dave Allen, NIWA
Public
Dietrich Feist

About 252 million years ago, most species on land and in the ocean became extinct. 90% of life on Earth was wiped out by the #GreatDying at the end of the #Permian period.

#Volcanoes have long been a suspect in this paleo murder mystery. But they were likely not alone: a mega #ElNino event that lasted for decades might have set off a series of events that jumped #CO2 concentration in the atmosphere from 410 ppm to 800 ppm and increased global mean temperature by 4 °C.

eos.org/articles/mega-el-nino-

Eos · Mega El Niño May Have Led to Major Mass Extinction 252 Million Years AgoBy Rebecca Owen
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